At the ICANN board meeting last week a single line resolution related to the new TLD launch gave a very clear indication of a timeline:

RESOLVED (2010.10.28.17), the Board directs staff to adopt as a working plan the Launch Scenario with launch date of Q2 2011, as contained in the graphic attached here [PDF, 112 KB].

The graphic gives May 30th 2011 as the launch date:

ICANN board newtld guideline October 2010

So will this timeline be respected?

It looks like the ICANN board has had enough of the delays and is making a push for this date.

Expect more news on this around the time of the meeting in Cartagena in December.